Minihan's World

Iran on a tightrope

Arlington VA January 4, 2012

Iran seems determined to walk a fine line between simple stupidity and outright idiocy in its current face-off with the US Navy in the  Straits of Hormuz. The last time they decided to close the straits by mining it, which resulted in an explosion aboard a US warship, they lost several craft in the return strikes.  This time, with their new surface-to-surface missiles, also recently tested, they   a giant again, but one with much more advanced firepower.

Iran is backed by China and Russia in their latest silliness, and has already indicated that, in the event of further UN/US sanctions (That is what this is really all about) they will close the straits and prevent oil export.  The Straits provide an avenue for export of a significant portion of exports from Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other producers.  So, the Iranis believe they have a wild card and have chosen to insult and belittle the US into some kind of confrontation since they have their allies solidly behind them.

But do they?

Russia, in particular, has proved over time to be a blusterous but unfaithful ally to the countries it has tried to stir up against the US and its allies.  China wants Irani oil, but will only go so far in supporting Iran.  Both countries can veto UN Security Council actions, but do not have the power ro force the Security Council to stop independent actions by member states who choose to go around the UN.  An effective stalemate for both countries.

Then there is the ultimate wild card in the area, Israel.  it is clear from the dialogues over the past several months that Israel sees Iran as the  biggest thorn in their side.  The Israeli military would like nothing more than the green light to go in and take out the nuclear sites, and anything else of military value that supports Irani terrorism.  So far, they have kept their looming potential below the horizon.  That cannot last forever, and they will probably not ask for UN permission if they do decide to strike.

The US, in turn, is improving the arms capabilities of Saudi Arabia and Iraq so that they can defend themselves when needed, and especially if the Irani do decide to construct traffic in the Straits.

Since the Irani Military made it clear that they did not want the USS Stennis back in the straits the navy has announced that not only will the Stennis continue to patrol, but the Abraham Lincoln and another carrier group will join the patrols as well.  That represents over 1500 aircraft, ships, and supporting vessels and infrastructure that strike Iran within minutes of any attack.  If that eventuality occurs, a lot of people will be visiting with Allah.  Let's all hope it doesn't come to that.

Joy to the World (Maybe)

December 25, 2011
Arlington VA, USA

Just a moment to ponder....

Time Magazine - Person of the Year 2011.  As we barrel headlong into the rushing rapids that will inevitably be 2012, perhaps a few moments ought to be spent pondering where we are, what our nation is doing, and what directions we ought to pursue in the coming 2012.

First, it is interesting that Time magazine has announced its "Person of the Year" and named the protesters on Wall Street (and elsewhere in the Nation) as that honoree. Nothing could more succinctly express the general malaise of our society than that dedication.  If these protesters were genuine, and not a bunch of professionals that go from cause to cause where their stipends come from, or where they might get free food and lodging aside from the streets, then they just might make a good point on the decadence of Wall Street and the broader banking community.  However, just reading the signs, and listening to many of their 'spokesmen' on the airways, it is easy to tell that these people, in general, really don't know what they are protesting about, and, as usual, the range of topics goes far beyond the financial mess we are in right now.

Is Iran a sole threat or a conspiracy with others?   An interesting question brought up over drinks the other day at my favorite pub in Crystal City.  Some believe that Iran is a directed threat against primarily Israel, and that the US is simply exacerbating that threat by its support for Jewish State.  Others believe that Iran is either working in concert with or bankrolling other states, such as Syria, in their efforts to undermine US efforts at peace in the area.

Personally, I believe neither is the straight truth.  Iran is almost certainly bankrolling Syria, Hezbollah Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza, and probably a large wing of factions in Iraq that have popped up since the US withdrawal a short time ago.  Both Iran and Syria have, I believe correctly, gauged the international sentiment for reducing conflict over creating more brawling with either country.  Only Israel remains alone in realizing that these two countries are significant risks to its survival over time if not stopped in their tracks.  The US is now virtually powerless to stop that eventuality.  All the rhetoric at the UN and other venues; all the frozen assets, travel restrictions, and the Hillary Clinton speeches have done virtually nothing to stop their internal and external actions.  As long as either or both have the capability to produce nuclear weapons, they remain both a threat, and a danger that must be respected--even more than the danger currently posed by the succession in North Korea.

Iran has the oil, the partners, the customers, and supporters to prevent real action against it in the long run--all except Israel.  If Israel sees a significant or potential danger (beyond that already in place), it will strike first and ask for international permission later--and justifiably so.  Iran has at least a limited ability to respond with nuclear weapons, rocket-based, but will it really do so?  Can it afford to do so?  Probably not, leaving some measure of hegemony between Israel and Iran that will serve as a deterrent.  Either side can severely damage the other, and each side hassuppporters who would really prefer not to be deeply involved in that potential conflict.  Only time will tell, but I will bet that Iran and Syria will ratchet up the stakes, and either or both will find themselves on the other side of a massive attack in the next six months.

The future of Iraq.  With the US pullout, Iraq has quickly become a mess that will require future international attention.  The Government wants to arrest its own Kurdish Vice President, bringing the Sunni-Kurd wound out afresh--but without the US to mediate.  Terror squads are roaming the country at will bombing here and there as they choose--disrupting the Government, and showing the clearly that Iraq must either live with their decisions or face civil war.  Expect a full-blown civil war within 3 months here.

Implications for the US economy.  Much of what is discussed above is being steered by politics and the economy.  The Obama Administration is so clearly showing itself as the single most incompetent admistration since Warren G Harding - Even Jimmy Carter did a better job, and both got the Nobel Prize for their lack of effort.  Everything in the Obama White House from his first day in office has been directed toward re-election, and nothing, including war and diplomacy will stand in the way of that effort.  The economy is still in a shambles, unemployment remains too high, the banks continue to use Federal funds, supported by the Federal Reserve and Treasury, as they gouge customers, and Obama goes off to Hawaii as he has done something to merit a vacation.  He has inflamed Israel--not even realizing that every step he takes pisses them off even more as he claims to support them while crticizing at every opportunity.

Don't get me wrong here - unlike the jaded media who think a trip to Israel is mandatory and kissing Netanyahu's ass at every chance is obligatory, I disagree.  The US should be pursuing a policy as an honest broker in the Middle East, but now it is too late to get any government in the area to believe that story.  Even Hillary Clinton can't make that bitter pill go done anyone's throat.  In fact, it seems that Bill Clinton actually has more influence currently on the world stage that the President.  Something is amiss here for that to be happening.  Many overseas are actually hoping for a new Clinton Era.  Wonder how Hillary would work that out?

In any event, there are so many balls in the air for the US right now that something will be coming crashing down--bet it will be the economy again, since there will be less of a war to draw from the economy.  only time will tell, but you can be sureit will not be the Obama administration that will tell you.

Happy New Year

 

Homeland Security is a Complete Mess

October 26, 2011

The time has come for real change at DHS.

Secretary Janet Napolitano went to Capitol Hill this week to discuss the arms fiasco along the Mexican Border with Congressional committees.  in effect, she was reporting that no real review of the whole matter had occured in DHS; a few 'sacrificial lambs' (primarily those that spoke to committees while DHS and Justice were stonewalling) were fired or resigned; but no real action had been taken to stop these transactions.  In fact, both  Holder, the Attorney General, and his US Attorney in Arizona tried to make the case these were good investigations (Of course, Holder later denied he knew anything and the White House was quick to say he 'mis-spoke' earlier).  What trash for senior Federal officials.

The time has come to stop dangerous actions that bear no fruit, and start firing those who essentially commit illegal actions instead of supporting them.  While I recognize that the Mexican drug trade needs to be curbed, you don't do it in a sane sociaety by providng them the guns to defend themselves.

Still here and working

October 22, 2011

So many significant events ha ve been happening since I last wrote.  mostly, I have been busy working on a new book that should come out early in the year.  Have also been re-editing my first book, Bernie Minihan's DIlemma, and a new version of that volume should reach the public about March 1st.  Hope you will all respond to those new issues as you have in the past.

 

Well, let's see what is going on in the Middle East and Mediterranean area

The biggest news is probably the death of Mohamar Quaddafi in Libya  (Have anybody ever figured out the real spelling of his name?).  It came after a long series of battles across the desert, ending, for all practical purposes in Sirte as he was captured, beaten, and then carted away to an ambulance where a mysterious bullet ended up in his skull.  One son and his Chief of Staff were also among the dead hauled out of a series of culvert pipers where they had been hiding after a strafing run from a NATO drone.  Good riddance to Uncle Mohamar, but one has to wonder who the new strongman will be as the Transitional Council gets down to the real work of governing.  Only time will tell, but Hillary Clinton is there to help them sort it all out.

There is Egypt, of course, which first threw out Mubbarak and then the generals simply started a new ruling council, promising elections that will either never come, or be limited to those candidates the generals want elected.  Net plus up for the people - ZERO.  great frevolt though.

Syria, who acts as if it  doesn't care about the rest of cthe world continues to shoot and bomb its people to keep Assad in power, and, with the rest of the world simply looking on, seems to be winning at doing that.  We, of course, issued a strong condemnation, but no real action.

Israel finally got back Sgt Shalit from Hamas. They in turn got a promise of 1,000 arabs being held in Israeli jails (They must have large jails with still another 4,000+ remaining in their jails).  Several of the more prominent arab bombers were on the itial freedom list of over 400, with the rest to be released in stages.  Wonder how long it will take Israel to find a pretext for not returning the rest, and, conversely, for Hamas to take another prisoner?  Will israel now loosen its stranglehold on Gaza (as it promised months ago for the release of the soldier) or will it continue with its blockade  and international piracy that continues to starve and kill Gazans?  Again, only time will tell.

Abbas and the Palestinian Authority went to the UN seeking membership and creation of a Palestinian homeland.  In this situation the facts really get perverse.  The US has threatened a veto in the Security Council on full membership.  The Israeli prime Minister, Netanyahu was quoted as saying negotiations were the answer to Palestinian statehood and not the UN.  How quickly we forget that in 1946-7, when the Palestinians still held on to their land, Israelis asked for membership and a homeland, and the UN , led by the US ripped a space our of Palestine and called it Israel.  The US and most of Europe that were decidedly anti-semitic at the time, embarassed by the Holocaust, and not wanting back their jewish emigres, could not wait to create the state.  The Palestinians, many of them farmers on the land for generations were simply kicked out with no compensation.  Now they want their mand back, and have at least a chance at doing so.  The stupidity of politics at its best.  Sort of reminds you of the plight of the American Indians doesn't it?

More later.

Editorial: What is the US Thinking?

Arlington VA April 6, 2011

Virtually the entire Middle East is up in arms to some degree, but US policy seems to be in shambles.  When the first outbreak of violence and oppostion occured in Tunisia, we started out by defending the regime and quickly switched to the insurgents as it became obvious that the Tunisian Government would fall.  The same occured in Egypt, as we tried valiantly to support Mubarak until the vast crowds in the streets showed us a new light.  Then we quickly froze Mubarak's assets and moved on. Hillary even visited with a scarf on her head in deference to the Islamic Fundamentalists.

The outcomes in those two countries seemed to be a new, and more democratic direction and Hillary Clinton could not wait to be part of new blooming democracies.  In Tunisia, that view seems to be working, but in Egypt, that solution is far from certain.  While a new, interim constitution is in place, the local villages are increasingly coming uner the control of the Imams, and Shariah Law is quickly forcing itself on the populations.  That does not bode well for the US's desire for democracy.

In Yemen and Bahrain, the same scenario is playing out, as part of Yemen is now an "Islamin Emirate", whatever that is, and has created its own government.  In Bahrain, home of the US Fifith Fleet, similar marches and riots are occuring, but the US has not publicly stated its view of that government, fearing, we would assume, for the safety of the deepwater port that houses the fleet. Political inconsistency makes us (the US) look like fools to the Arab world.

Nowhere, however, has there been more disorder in approach than in Libya.  Here we started bombing Gadhafi's defense, convoys, and assaults, at least at first, and then allowed Gadhafi to move out against the rebels.  Our excuse has been that we want to evaluate if al-Quada has infiltrated the rebel forces, mostly because there was a rumor that al_quada fighters had joined the opposition..  Of course they have!  Get over it.  We surrendered our primary position even before the French (How unusual) and now NATO has to do what we seemed not inclined to do in opposing Gadhafi.  Instead, we ordered their embassy in the US closed.  That really impacted on Gadhafi--he must be really afraid of us for that action.

The US diplomatic approach is in shambles, as Hillary CLinton goes from safe place to safe place to discuss the issues with other countries who also want to be in safe places.  Meanwhile, the insurgents in these countries are doing what we don't have the guts to do--oppose tyranny and put their lives on the line to do so.

When will we learn?