December 23, 2009
With the so-called 'informal' deadline approaching on the US/UN requirement that Iran agree to sending its uranium to another country to be processed into commercial use rods, and Iran's continuiing refusal to respond, you have to increasiningly wonder what the real next steps will be.
From my own perspective, I believe that the US will go to the UN and the EU for increased sanctions--probably get them from the EU, but less so sure it will happen in the UN since Russia and China will bring their own views to bear there. Some sanctions will follow that Iran will also disregard.
Then, some morning in the next month or two, Israel will stage an early morning raid on the Irani nuclear plants and try to surgically take them out--with the help of US intelligence and AWACS. They will get most of those know about, but probably not all of them that are still covered or hidden.
What happens after that is even more unclear. Will at least part of the Arab world rise up in some fashion? Will Chavez in Venezuela come to support Iran and cut off the heavy oil needed here and elsewhere for heating? Will OPEC do the same to some degree? Then, of course, what will be the military response, if any?
The rest of the Arab world will surely not let Israel take those steps without some response--even if most do have some dislike of Ahmadinajad and his religious cohorts that prop up that regime. They hate Israel even more, and even with Egypt in the Israeli camp, someone or group is bound to decide that retribution is needed.
The next few weeks may be very interesting.