Minihan's World

Iran Prepared to take 'Pre-emptive Strikes'

Arlington VA  February 22,2012 [Updated]

The Associated Press reported today that the deputy head of Iran’s armed forces said that Tehran is ready to take pre-emptive action against its foes if it feels that it is in danger.

“We do not wait for enemies to take action against us,” Gen. Mohammed Hejazi, who heads the military’s logistical wing, was quoted by the semiofficial Fars news agency as saying. “We will use all our means to protect our national interests.”

Iran said the day before that it was starting air defense war games to practice protecting nuclear and other sensitive sites, the latest in a series of military maneuvers viewed as a message to the West that Iran is prepared both to defend itself against an armed strike and to retaliate.

The official news agency IRNA said the four-day air defense war games, dubbed “Sarallah,” or “God’s Revenge,” were taking place in the south of the country and involve anti-aircraft batteries, radar, and warplanes. The drill will be held over 73,000 square miles (190,000 square kilometers) near the port of Bushehr, the site of Iran’s lone nuclear power plant.

Iran has held multiple air, land, and sea maneuvers in recent months as the tensions increase, according to the AP article.

If iran has only 'peaceful' nuclear intentions, why the saber-rattling, why the naval forces to Syria, and why the Britain-France Embargo?  Only time will really tell what is happening here.

One of the latest analyses of the iran-Israel controversy was printed in the New York Times today in its world news report.  Several significant statements are here about the intent of the nuclear program, its potential effect on israel, and the overall effect of US and other sanctions.  read the article here.

Comments?

 

Media says Iran is ready to talk Nuclear

Arlington VA 17 February 2012

Multiple media outlets have been reporting on iran's apparent willingness to talk about it nuclear program over the last 24 hours.  it seems, in their view, that the sanctions are working.

Don't be fooled by the by the wanderings of Ahmadinijad and his crazy set of ayatollahs.  They have offered before to so the same thing and then find a way to slap the face of the US and  .  Their latest set of bombings (One incident that occurred by someone with an Iranian passport) show that they are still the exporters of terrorism.  if they are afraid, it is not of the US, but of  Israel, which is clearly preparing for a major strike over the next couple of months.

Israel has iran dangling, and deservedly so.  It is simply amazing to me that Iran has no fear of the major superpowers, but is clearly afraid that Israel, with nothing to lose, and a superpower providing the weapons, will conduct a devastating set of strikes on Iran.  They (Israel) have the will, the guts, and the emerging requirement to do what their allies should have done a long time ago but lack the gumtion to complete

Your thoughts

Upcoming Conflict

Arlington, VA February 15, 2012

Oil as a variable

To say that the Mideast is a tinderbox is perhaps a misnomer.  Rather, it appears the fuses are already lit and, as usual, the US will be in the middle, primarily due to the ineptitude and stupidity of the Obama Administration.

The most important problem is, in my view, not Israel-Iran, as many think, but a more basis conflict--the production and delivery of oil.  We still have major conflicts ongoing in Bahrain, Syria, Egypt, and Libya--all contributing to the ever-fluctuating prices of oil at the barrel-head.  Until these regional flareups settle down, especially those in Egypt and Libya, there cannot be any stabilization of oil prices.

Much of this instability is tied to the greed, not of the producers, but from the refiners and distributors.  if one looks honestly at the oil market, it does not take a genius to realize that prices above those set by OPEC and others are set by the same distributors that bought the early through futures purchases months or even years earlier.  let's say for a moment that their price at the pipe was $60.00 a barrel for delivery in twelve months.  The market immediately takes over and the price rises because of  'market turmoil' to the extent that--a year later--that $60 oil is now $90 oil just as it is  now  out of the pipe today--a great profit for the distributors.  Take instability in Egypt, Libya, or even Greece and the price goes even higher long before the delivery and payment for the oil futures is required.

Add to that instability a number of conflicts, such as that in Bahrain, which affects the Saudi oil market, and even more instability occurs in both pricing and availability.

There are also a number of sources that point to the US - a major oil importer -- as one of the real problems in this set of equations.  US refiners have large supplies of oil, much of it heavier oil, although lighter oil for gasoline is also stored, and they are carefully limiting their refining and distribution processes to drive up the prices even further.  That doesn't help anyone, except the refiners that generally support the Obama administration with contributions.

Bottom line --oil is a major factor in the larger equation of Mideast peace.

Israel as a variable

The majority of the Mideast countries, despite their public statements, do not like Israel in their midst. Nor do they like the attitude of the current Israeli administation that continues to try to beat down both Hamas and the Fatah. In turn, Israel, relying on the US and its UN Security Council majority, could care less about true peace, relying on enforced cease fires with occasional invasions by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) Whenever they choose.

The argument, however, is not about Israel asa country.  it is about Israel as a religious entity--one that is anathema to Islam regardless of the individual sect.  It must be remembered that, while the Jews have a long history in Palestine, they were absent for many centuries, and other semitic peoples lived on the land that Israel now claims through UN Mandate.  Even that mandate was never completely executed and the only people left out were the original Palestinians, who were thrown from their land, given no rights, and displaced even further as European Jews filled the land spaces.

That having been siad, Israel is a recognized country and its citizens have a right to live in peace as well.  Unfortunately, neither side really gives way to the other; Israel is the strongest country in the area; its Government is strong and its military powerful; and its people dedicated to peace but prepared for war if needed to retain their space.

Faced on all sides by countries and governments that really do not support them, Israel has a continuing problem of preparation for conflict. Egypt started to close the underground portals to Gaza, but, with the "Arab Spring" has generally stopped that effort, and even opened the above-ground entry points between Egypt and Gaza to convoy trade.  Lebanon continues to harass the Israeli border guards and troops, and missiles still fire occasionally from Gaza and the West Bank.  Syria is decidedly not a friend of israel but, luckily, is engaged in its own burgeoning civil war.

Importantly, the Israeli people are tired of war and are gradually splitting into both peace-preferred and war-mongering factions.  The war faction sees Iran as its greatest threat and it looking for ways to justify its attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.  That might be a good idea, but Israel will have only one shot at that country, and the real question is whether they have the capability to pull off a complete destruction of those facilitate, the Iranian air defense system, and enough of the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian Air Force to make their raid a success.  The US is already deeply involved in supporting that effort when it comes.  We will provide even larger 'bunker buster' bombs, refueling facilities, and everything else they need.  We (the US) will also be prepared to condemn their actions should the world not agree--that's the general response from the Obama Administration thus far).

The Israeli peace faction is turning quickly to Palestinian rights and, again, justifiably so.  Were the israeli Government to stop the indiscriminate settlement building, and provide rights to the Palestinians that peacefully worked the land for centuries, they might just find an ally for even more peace initiatives.  The full terms of peace among the Jews and Muslims will probably never be achieved after the two Intifadas, but it is worth the effort.

That attempt at pace means the US needs to become an honest broker and not just an Israeli ally.  The US needs to get out of the daily complaints, and into a view that encourages both EQUALLY toward peace.  Perhaps that means stopping much of the $50B in aid that goes out to Israel, or at least predicating the military support aid on real progress toward peace.  Support to Israel on Iran is a different issue.  Working out peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel through direct negotiations changes the equation, and removes the influence of iran on the issue.

Whatever we decide to do, and whatever Israel decides to do, it needs to happen before the Israelis attempt to destroy Iran.  Peace will not come from an incomplete effort.

Iran on a tightrope

Arlington VA January 4, 2012

Iran seems determined to walk a fine line between simple stupidity and outright idiocy in its current face-off with the US Navy in the  Straits of Hormuz. The last time they decided to close the straits by mining it, which resulted in an explosion aboard a US warship, they lost several craft in the return strikes.  This time, with their new surface-to-surface missiles, also recently tested, they   a giant again, but one with much more advanced firepower.

Iran is backed by China and Russia in their latest silliness, and has already indicated that, in the event of further UN/US sanctions (That is what this is really all about) they will close the straits and prevent oil export.  The Straits provide an avenue for export of a significant portion of exports from Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other producers.  So, the Iranis believe they have a wild card and have chosen to insult and belittle the US into some kind of confrontation since they have their allies solidly behind them.

But do they?

Russia, in particular, has proved over time to be a blusterous but unfaithful ally to the countries it has tried to stir up against the US and its allies.  China wants Irani oil, but will only go so far in supporting Iran.  Both countries can veto UN Security Council actions, but do not have the power ro force the Security Council to stop independent actions by member states who choose to go around the UN.  An effective stalemate for both countries.

Then there is the ultimate wild card in the area, Israel.  it is clear from the dialogues over the past several months that Israel sees Iran as the  biggest thorn in their side.  The Israeli military would like nothing more than the green light to go in and take out the nuclear sites, and anything else of military value that supports Irani terrorism.  So far, they have kept their looming potential below the horizon.  That cannot last forever, and they will probably not ask for UN permission if they do decide to strike.

The US, in turn, is improving the arms capabilities of Saudi Arabia and Iraq so that they can defend themselves when needed, and especially if the Irani do decide to construct traffic in the Straits.

Since the Irani Military made it clear that they did not want the USS Stennis back in the straits the navy has announced that not only will the Stennis continue to patrol, but the Abraham Lincoln and another carrier group will join the patrols as well.  That represents over 1500 aircraft, ships, and supporting vessels and infrastructure that strike Iran within minutes of any attack.  If that eventuality occurs, a lot of people will be visiting with Allah.  Let's all hope it doesn't come to that.

Joy to the World (Maybe)

December 25, 2011
Arlington VA, USA

Just a moment to ponder....

Time Magazine - Person of the Year 2011.  As we barrel headlong into the rushing rapids that will inevitably be 2012, perhaps a few moments ought to be spent pondering where we are, what our nation is doing, and what directions we ought to pursue in the coming 2012.

First, it is interesting that Time magazine has announced its "Person of the Year" and named the protesters on Wall Street (and elsewhere in the Nation) as that honoree. Nothing could more succinctly express the general malaise of our society than that dedication.  If these protesters were genuine, and not a bunch of professionals that go from cause to cause where their stipends come from, or where they might get free food and lodging aside from the streets, then they just might make a good point on the decadence of Wall Street and the broader banking community.  However, just reading the signs, and listening to many of their 'spokesmen' on the airways, it is easy to tell that these people, in general, really don't know what they are protesting about, and, as usual, the range of topics goes far beyond the financial mess we are in right now.

Is Iran a sole threat or a conspiracy with others?   An interesting question brought up over drinks the other day at my favorite pub in Crystal City.  Some believe that Iran is a directed threat against primarily Israel, and that the US is simply exacerbating that threat by its support for Jewish State.  Others believe that Iran is either working in concert with or bankrolling other states, such as Syria, in their efforts to undermine US efforts at peace in the area.

Personally, I believe neither is the straight truth.  Iran is almost certainly bankrolling Syria, Hezbollah Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza, and probably a large wing of factions in Iraq that have popped up since the US withdrawal a short time ago.  Both Iran and Syria have, I believe correctly, gauged the international sentiment for reducing conflict over creating more brawling with either country.  Only Israel remains alone in realizing that these two countries are significant risks to its survival over time if not stopped in their tracks.  The US is now virtually powerless to stop that eventuality.  All the rhetoric at the UN and other venues; all the frozen assets, travel restrictions, and the Hillary Clinton speeches have done virtually nothing to stop their internal and external actions.  As long as either or both have the capability to produce nuclear weapons, they remain both a threat, and a danger that must be respected--even more than the danger currently posed by the succession in North Korea.

Iran has the oil, the partners, the customers, and supporters to prevent real action against it in the long run--all except Israel.  If Israel sees a significant or potential danger (beyond that already in place), it will strike first and ask for international permission later--and justifiably so.  Iran has at least a limited ability to respond with nuclear weapons, rocket-based, but will it really do so?  Can it afford to do so?  Probably not, leaving some measure of hegemony between Israel and Iran that will serve as a deterrent.  Either side can severely damage the other, and each side hassuppporters who would really prefer not to be deeply involved in that potential conflict.  Only time will tell, but I will bet that Iran and Syria will ratchet up the stakes, and either or both will find themselves on the other side of a massive attack in the next six months.

The future of Iraq.  With the US pullout, Iraq has quickly become a mess that will require future international attention.  The Government wants to arrest its own Kurdish Vice President, bringing the Sunni-Kurd wound out afresh--but without the US to mediate.  Terror squads are roaming the country at will bombing here and there as they choose--disrupting the Government, and showing the clearly that Iraq must either live with their decisions or face civil war.  Expect a full-blown civil war within 3 months here.

Implications for the US economy.  Much of what is discussed above is being steered by politics and the economy.  The Obama Administration is so clearly showing itself as the single most incompetent admistration since Warren G Harding - Even Jimmy Carter did a better job, and both got the Nobel Prize for their lack of effort.  Everything in the Obama White House from his first day in office has been directed toward re-election, and nothing, including war and diplomacy will stand in the way of that effort.  The economy is still in a shambles, unemployment remains too high, the banks continue to use Federal funds, supported by the Federal Reserve and Treasury, as they gouge customers, and Obama goes off to Hawaii as he has done something to merit a vacation.  He has inflamed Israel--not even realizing that every step he takes pisses them off even more as he claims to support them while crticizing at every opportunity.

Don't get me wrong here - unlike the jaded media who think a trip to Israel is mandatory and kissing Netanyahu's ass at every chance is obligatory, I disagree.  The US should be pursuing a policy as an honest broker in the Middle East, but now it is too late to get any government in the area to believe that story.  Even Hillary Clinton can't make that bitter pill go done anyone's throat.  In fact, it seems that Bill Clinton actually has more influence currently on the world stage that the President.  Something is amiss here for that to be happening.  Many overseas are actually hoping for a new Clinton Era.  Wonder how Hillary would work that out?

In any event, there are so many balls in the air for the US right now that something will be coming crashing down--bet it will be the economy again, since there will be less of a war to draw from the economy.  only time will tell, but you can be sureit will not be the Obama administration that will tell you.

Happy New Year

 

Life as Usual in the Middle East

Arlington VA April 5, 2011

Gadhafi's son scrambling to be the next leader in Libya.

Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, has been not-so quietly offering proposals for him to take over from his father in exchange for peace in the country.  You remember Seif, he indicated a few weeks back on international television that there would be a bloodbath in the cities if the rebels did not capitulate.  Now he wants to be seen as a healer of his 'beloved country.'  The rebels are not buying it, so don't expect a Gadhafi in power for too much longer.

There were explosions in the major Gadhafi compounds in Tripoli on the weekend, and it appeared to some media stationed there that either an aborted coup was moving or some action being taken to prevent more of the major players from deserting the Supreme leader.  Who knows.

(In the rest of the Middle East...

Syria still has thousands marching in the streets each day.  Bashar Assad has promised reforms and a new government, but the killing goes on.  Soon, he will outreach his father's totals in killings.

Yemenhas apparently split into two countries--if you read the al-Quada press.  an 'Islamic Emirate' has been formed from part of the country, while gassing of protesters and indiscriminate shooting still occurs daily in the streets.  Now the Government has introduced a stronger version of tear gas that has, so far, injured over two hundred, and perhaps more.  The US has now dropped any pretenses of supporting the Government.

In Oman,a group of terrorists took over an ammunition factory and blew themselves up--another result of good training which killed over 75 people outright.  All in the cause of democracy.

Bahrain, meanwhile is still in the grip of their dictator/strongman who has banned the opposition and closed some newspapers.  it does not seem to be stopping the people however, and one has to wonder what are the next steps here.  The US carefully watching this nation, since the Fifth Fleet is based there in the harbor.

And in Israel..

Lots going on in that peace-loving nation.  With the palestinians calling for the General Assembly to grant their their own nation, Israel is broadly hinting that it will simply annex the West Bank and other lands where vthere are mixed settlements, and the palestinians will get nothing--the rest of the world be damned.  And, oh yes, we need more munitions, planes, and bombs from the US.

Netanyahu, the Israeli PM is now demanding the US abrogate the Goldstone report on the atrocities in Gaza since Lord Goldstone has revised his personal view of what happened.  Not sure why Goldstone changed, but the numbers in the cemeteries have not, and the deaths are still attributable to Israel.

Iran is quiet, but still sending funding and fighters wherever it will help overturn governments and create fundamentalist regimes.

 

What a Mess Obama has us in...

May 19, 2010

First in Iran..

The Irani Government has announced a deal brokered with Brazil and Turkey to completely circumvent the US at both the UN and in the court of world opinion.  The Iranis have agreed, under the supervision of the UN Atomic Energy Agency to transfer part of its uranium to Turkey in exchange of enriched product that can be used, according to them, in a medical laboratory.  Russia, China, and several other superpowers (or would-be superpowers) breathed a sigh and applauded the effort.  The US continued to press for sanctions, which they will now probably not get.  The PR effect alone was a significant slap in the face for Obama Diplomacy.  Let's see what comes next.

Then the Great Mexican Arrives...

Felipe Calderon, the President of Mexico, our welfare state to the south, has arrived for a state dinner with Obama and retinue.  Both spent part of the morning condemning the new Arizona law as unfair to Mexicans.  Well, it seems to me that, whatever you think of the new law, this guy coming to the US and condemning it is incredible.  If an American went the other way (Only God would know what for) he/she would be immediately facing a ten year sentence for illegal immigration--no probable cause before stopping you--racial profiling is OK in Mexico.  Their jails are somewhat different from ours, and many simply disappear in them.  Most are poorly treated--to keep the conversation at a higher level.

Hussain Obama loves the guy and will be feting him for dinner this evening when he should be sending him packing for interfering in our domestic policies.  It's our job--our incompetant Congress that is--to fix the immigration issue, not the President of Mexico.

And finally....

Tuesday was not a great day for the Democrats.  They lost and lost badly in states they needed to win.  They will lose more as time goes on until they lose in November.  Why?  Because their greatest cheerleaders are Hussain Obama and Wall Street.  The time has come--and it appears to have--that the American people are going to really take back their own government and put a lot of newcomers in DC to try to straighten out this mess that he has created.  No blaming anyone else for:

• 4 Trillion Deficit
• The worst economy in years (Perhaps since the great depression, or at least since Jimmy Carter)
• The worst set of cabinet officers in history
• A litany of failed campaign promises
• A healthcare reform debacle that will haunt our children for years
• and much, much more

What else can he do?  He still has two more years of screwing up ahead.  let's watch and wait.  I bet his future failures will be even more spectacular.

In the News......

May 3, 2010

DHS extends its stupidity to the farmlands

Franklin VT is a sleepy little town of mostly farmers--with one road biscting it that DHS and its Custom's and Border Protection Service decided needs to have a bigger and better inspection station to take care of what has been estimated at 2.5 cars per hour on a good day.  So, they intend one way or the other to take acreage from the Rainville VT Dairy Farm for that purpose.  In doing so, Secretary Napolitano, responding to VT Senator Leahy, apparently could not care less on its effect.

Brian Rainville, the farmer, has been quoted as saying " The arrogance of it is breathtaking.  Why are we being asked to make that kind of sacrifice when they can't demonstrate a public need?"

Secretary Napolitano's answer--"This is one of those things where we are trying to work with the owners to get down the footprint.. in terms of what CBP has determined it needs to actually do the kind of port improvement there--There's a certain amount, unless you do it, you might as well not do it at all."  Senator Leahy says nothing needs to be done. 

Napolitano's comment appears to be spurious at best, since, at the same time, the Rianville's received a letter from the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).  That letter said, in part: "CPB, in coordination with USACE, is writing to inform you that it will be necessary to move forward with condemnation to acquire the necessary property interests.  We anticipate filing a condemnation action within the next 60 days through the U.S. District Court for the District of Vermont."  Now that is sincerre negotiations if I have ever heard them.

The Government offers $39K for the land they will take--about a third of its value as a hay-producing property for the dairy farm.  The effect will probably be to force the farm into bankruptcy--thus allowing the Government, if it chooses, to take all the land they originally demanded from the Rainville's.

Napolitano claims she will order a public hearing.  In this administration, the hearing could easily be in DC.

Still more on the Arizona Immigration Law. 

We previosly reported on Mexican President Calderon's opposition to the new law.  It is interesting that this guy is so loud, considering that Mexico's own immigration law is much harsher with illegal immigration being a felony and subjecting illegal immigramtds to jail terms up to 10 years.  Their law, The General Law on Population (Reglamento de la ley General de Poblacion) was enacted in 2000 and has remarkably similar mandates for local police officers as is contained in the Arizona Law.

Seems like this is one issue that will not go away.  Secretary Napolitano, as expected, pointed out that she had previously vetoed versions of the law, and that its enactment would 'distract DHS from its priorities in activities", due, I gues, to the possibility that DHS just might have to take custody of the illegals from the state.  But then, isn't that their job anyhow?

And in Israel.....

Hillary Clinton, our energetic Secretary of State is up in arms over the possibility that Iran might bring up Nuclear Israel at the upcoming Nuclear Disarmament Conference at the UN this month.  Israel and the US have carefully prevented that issue from being addressed for years and they don't want Iran and Egypt to be brining it up now. That might force Israel, a signer of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty to formally admit its nuclear status--something neither the US or Israel wants.  Israel, of course, is perfectly willing to give up nuclear weapons if (1) they get treaties of peace from everyone in the region, and (2) Iran and other arab states are denied them. Otherwise, they keep the bombs they don't admit to having in the first place.  Those other countries, of course, do not have the sweet, secret deal Israel has with the US.

In the News - April 20th

April 20, 2010

China wants more discussions on Iran

China, aiming to get the most mileage it can from continuing discussions with Iran rather than sanctions-- which also means that China gets to continue to receive oil and gas from that country as well--seems to be creating problems for the Obama Administration in its attempts to impose significant sanctions on that country.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu has reiterated that there is still room for discussions to overcome issues around Iran's nuclear energy program, reports PressTV.  Russia has been joining China in that quest. 

"We have always believed that dialogue and negotiations are the best channels for resolving the Iran nuclear issue," Jiang said."   Referring to the regular meetings of the five permanent members of the Security Council — Russia, China, France, the US and UK — plus Germany (P5+1), she added, "We have stated many times that the six countries launching the talks in New York does not mean that the door is shut to dialogue and negotiations."

Iran claims their nuclear conference a great success

Iran conducted its own nuclear disarmament conference, as it claimed it would, following the recent Washington Conference to which it, Syria, and North Korea were not invited.  Iran continues to indicate that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes and not for developing weapons.  Few countries in the West believe that position--something only time will tell.  Most recently Iran announced it would increase and extend its nuclear development program regarless of what the US wanted, and dared them, or others, such as Israel, to step in.

Al Qaeda leader in Iraq Killed in raid

Iraqi and U.S. troops, building on information provided by a captured al-Qaeda agent,  killed a regional leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq in an early morning raid Tuesday.  Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri were killed in a joint operation Sunday in what has been described as a "potentially devastating blow" to al-Qaeda in Iraq. The intelligence that led to the elusive leaders' desert safehouse about six miles (10 kilometers) southwest of Tikrit came from the same source — a senior al-Qaeda operative captured last month — that produced the information leading to Tuesday's raid, according to a senior Iraqi military intelligence officer who supervised both operations.  Security forces continue to put pressure on the terrorist organization following the reported deaths of these two top-ranking figures over the weekend, officials said.

Palestinians want the israeli security decision on expulsion of Palestinians reversed

The Palestinian leadership is exerting efforts to force Israel into cancelling the military decision on the expulsion of thousands of Palestinians out of the West Bank, Dr.Saeb Oraiqat, the head of negotiations in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) said.  The Palestinian authority would head to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to demand the issuance of a resolution to black out the Israeli military decision.  Israel has reportedly started implementation of the resolution (1650) issued by the commander of the Israeli forces operating the West Bank to expel Palestinians residing in the city, claiming that they are classified as ‘infiltrators’.

The Nuclear Summit is Going Nuclear

April 13, 2010

Has anyone seen any mushroom clouds down around the convention center in Washington DC? 

The air is thick down there with political posturing about what to do with the three meanies (N. Korea, Iran & Syria) that were not invited.  Guess it is important that when the powers that be want to talk about you in public the best thing is not to invite you to listen.  Sure works wonders in really diplomatic situations.

Madame Secretary Hillary is there, fresh from her shutdown by Obama--who indicated clearly she would NOT be in consideration for the Supreme Court.  That could have been an interesting confirmation hearing--with all the history from Arkansas--Papergrate, Billygate, and the other 'gates' involving the shading dealings of she and the former President while he was Governor.

A number of other leaders are also there among the 47 countries represented that have gone nuclear.  With so many (including Israel who continues to officially refuse to admit that it has the bomb), it almost seems time to give everybody a bomb and get back to detente like we had during the Cold War.  As Tom Lehrer said years ago, "First we got the bomb and that was good, cause we love peace and motherhood.."  Try to tell that to anyone who has to navigate in the District while this charade is going on this week.

When you get a chance, read the impassioned diatribe by Obama about how bin laden would dearly love to get a bomb.  Frankly he probably wants a bomb more than we want to get him.  Neither side has yet competantly achieved its desires.

More later.

Rallies with real meaning

January 2, 2010

Happy New Year to all.  let's see what is happening on this aupicious occasion.

Rallies first...

You may recall the Iran rally in Tehran the other day that was decidedly pro-government.  Of course, they provided a bus, lunch, and a bullet if you didn't attend 'voluntarilly.'  Thousands who did not want to die chanted fervently in favor of the idiots running that country.

Now North Korea has been quick to respond.  Huge rallies came out for New Year's day in the capital, Pyongyang and elsewhere.  They also provided a bus, free lunch, a flag, and a picture of the 'dear leader' to wave.  Wonder if they borrowed the buses from Iran?

The South Koreans hel their own rally near Panmunjom, the militarized border to protest the NK leadership.  The poster says "Murderer Kim Jong-il."

In any case, the usual New Years message from the leadership, broadcast in the three major parrty daily newspapers (Which everyone apparently reads fervently while they are starving) proclaimed that it was time to cease hostilites and increase friendship with the US.  Must be very cold in Korea right now--they usually start this kind of thing as people begin to both starve and freeze.  Only the leadership and the army gets sufficient food, fuel, and other comforts.  That's how 'democratic republics' work.

We should give neither country any compassion or assistance.  Everytime we do, they lie their way out of agreements, or run a few cheap rockets into the air as if that is scaring anyone, other than themselves.  Then they put themselves on alert as if they are about to be attacked.  The media makes heyday out of it and the resulting publicity gets everyone edgy even more.

On to Israel...

China View, A Chinese online journal is reporting a story that Israel has decided to apply its version of the Bush Doctrine--grab someone, hold them without trial, deny them rights, and then hold them even after they get a trial--and is applying it to those that were arrested during the recent Gaza incursion and massacre.  The Israeli parliament passed an 'illegal warrior' law that apprently allows them to do this.,  Two are being held from the lebanon incursion for no other reason to have bargaining chips on the soldier still held there.  The Palestinian Authority (PA) has been complaining to international bodies about the law, but to no avail.

An then to the inept would-be plane bomber..

President Obama has now decided, apparently on good evidence, that al-Qaeda is reponsaible for aborted bombing to the Delta jet coming into Detroit a week ago.  You tube is showing a video, shown below on this issue.

Obama has also, according to the Associated Press, promised the alleged bomber a fair trial.  That remains to be seen.

What a grerat start to the New Year.  And, wehaven't even heard from Hillary Clinton or Jimmie Carter yet.

Reality in Iran - of sorts

December 30, 2009

Reuters is reporting huge pro-government demonstrations across Iran yesterday and early today.

According to Reuters, "Hundreds of thousands of government supporters rallied across Iran on Wednesday, swearing allegiance to the clerical establishment and accusing opposition leaders of causing unrest in the Islamic state."

"You should repent ... otherwise the system will confront you as a 'mohareb' (enemy of God)," cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda told a Tehran rally, directing his remarks at reformist leaders, state TV reported. Under Iran's sharia (Islamic law) the sentence for a mohareb is death."  The situation in Tehran and elsewhere is rapidly deteriorating, from reports broad cast over You Tube and Al Jazeera, among others. 

The article continued, "In Tehran, crowds burned American and British flags, condemning what they said was interference by Washington and London in Iran's internal affairs.

Semi-official Fars news agency said a group of hardliners gathered in front of the British embassy in Tehran, chanting "the British embassy should be closed down".

Iran's top authority accused the West of basing its actions toward Iran on "distorted realities".

"They are under influence of foreign and Zionist (linked to Israel) news agencies' reports," Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, the students news agency ISNA reported.

There was no word of any opposition supporters on the streets on Wednesday, despite talk of demonstrations on reformist websites. Foreign media are restricted from moving around to report on such protests, which are illegal.

In Iran's bloodiest unrest since the aftermath of the disputed June 12 presidential election, eight people were killed on Sunday and at least 20 pro-reform figures, including three senior advisers to Mousavi, were arrested.

United Nations Human Rights chief Navi Pillay called on the Tehran government on Wednesday to curb excess use of force by its security services and expressed shock over violence."

Read the entire article here to see the extent of the mess.

Meanwhile, the US continues to pursue its plans to seek more stringent sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program.  However, Reuters reports that this approach is not without danger to the broader situation evolving there. The Huffington Post in today's editions, discusses at length the rope balance between human rights and nuclearization that the Obama Administration has to walk to have any reasonable effect at all.  Right now, it seems for the most part that Iran could care less about US threats.  It remains to be seem if that view changes.

The Washington Post, on Monday, December 28th, had written about the impact of the anti-government demonstrations and deaths on Ashura--a high religious holiday for the Shi'ite Sect, and how this could mold opinion in that country.  The Post calls the events of last weekend  a turning point--one from which relations among the various Pro and Anit-government groups will never recover , at least until one of the other succeeds in eliminating the other and taking or retaining control.  That could mean significant unrest for years to come, and has implications for the other area states with significant Shi'ite populations.

We will continue to cover events in Iran as they unfold.

More on Iran

December 28, 2009

Things have been getting really dicey in Iran over the past few days. Following initial demonstrations, sparked in part over the 'disappearance' of the body of the nephew of former presidential candidate Mir Hossein Musabi last weekend, and the refusal of the current regime to allow a funeral for late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, a popular religious figure by the current religious dictator, Ayatollah Ali Khamaenei.

What is estimated as 'thousands' took to the streets in several cities, fighting the police, burning their vehicles, and getting the message out that all is not well in the Islamic Republic.  Roving bands of police, revolutionary guards, and their cohorts on motorbikes have arrested what is reported as over a thousand people.  In additin, police at every hospital and clinic are taking names and escorting injured out.  Several who have died have had their bodies removed by the police--preventing their burial as required by Islamic Law.

So far Ahmadinijhad has not ordered the arrest of the rest of the former presidential candidates,  but two other notables, Ebriham Yazdi, former foreign minister, age 78, and several high-level aides to Musabi were detained at u nknown locations.  Those arrests only further inflamed the crowds.  Thre official Irani Press, mostly controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, reported only on some reported pro-government demonstrations in Tehran and Qom.

President Obama was quick to denounce the brutal crackdowns, saying that the US "joins with the international community in stronlgy condemning the violent and unjust supprerssion of innocent Iranian citizens."

All is not well in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Getting close on Iran

December 23, 2009

With the so-called 'informal' deadline approaching on the US/UN requirement that Iran agree to sending its uranium to another country to be processed into commercial use rods, and Iran's continuiing refusal to respond, you have to increasiningly wonder what the real next steps will be.

From my own perspective, I believe that the US will go to the UN and the EU for increased sanctions--probably get them from the EU, but less so sure it will happen in the UN since Russia and China will bring their own views to bear there.  Some sanctions will follow that Iran will also disregard.

Then, some morning in the next month or two, Israel will stage an early morning raid on the Irani nuclear plants and try to surgically take them out--with the help of US intelligence and AWACS.  They will get most of those know about, but probably not all of them that are still covered or hidden.

What happens after that is even more unclear.  Will at least part of the Arab world rise up in some fashion?  Will Chavez in Venezuela come to support Iran and cut off the heavy oil needed here and elsewhere for heating?  Will OPEC do the same to some degree?  Then, of course, what will be the military response, if any?

The rest of the Arab world will surely not let Israel take those steps without some response--even if most do have some dislike of Ahmadinajad and his religious cohorts that prop up that regime.  They hate Israel even more, and even with Egypt in the Israeli camp, someone or group is bound to decide that retribution is needed.

The next few weeks may be very interesting.